This is a very important topic. While there is a consensus that human induced climate change is happening, its predicted effects on UK weather are full of uncertainties. The UK’s climate and weather patterns will change and appear already to be changing.  We are commissioning a full review of how climate change could affect garden wildlife, this page sets out some basic information and pointers.

 

 

Our leaflet Summary of current predictions of main UK climate change parameters provides a more detailed summary of the latest scientific predictions. 

 

All UK regions are expected to experience a rise in temperature, especially in summer, adding potentially more than 5°C to daily maximum temperatures. In the winter, daily minima could rise by about 4°C , reducing the likelihood of frosts.

 

Across the year, predicted changes in rainfall (including snow and hail) are small, but with considerable increases in winter rain, and decreases in summer rain.  This could increase the frequency of seasonal droughts and flooding, and could have impacts on wetland habitats and their ecology.

 

Cloud cover and relative humidity will both be reduced in the summer, increasing direct solar heating and the rate of water loss through evaporation.  Both will add to low summer rainfall to increase stress on plants.

 

 

There may be far fewer winters in the future when we will experience prolonged frost and snow, or these beautiful ice flowers formed on a garden pond.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Flowering has become up to 13 days earlier, because of warmer springs, but reduction in winter chill has delayed the flowering of some plant species which need a cold snap to trigger flowering. Droughts, like that in 1976, have killed trees, especially sycamore and beech, but this could have been an extreme weather event rather than evidence of climate change.

 

Spawning and hatching are happening earlier in frogs, now even before Christmas in the south-west.  Overall frog and toad populations have declined, consistent with low summer rainfall in the period 2003-2006  (before recent red-leg disease)  - alongside habitat loss.

 

In the UK a wide-range of species have shifted their distributions northwards at the rate of some 10 - 25 km every decade.  The garden tiger moth is now uncommon in the south, but continues to survive in the north, apparently in response to warmer winters. Current warming probably contributed to the spread of bluetongue virus in UK sheep and cattle, as its biting midge vector is spreading north in Europe.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gardens may have some important conservation roles under climate change.  They will be better maintained, in terms of protection from gales and drought, than the countryside and nature reserves, and their role in sustaining generalist species may become even greater.  Locally therefore, they will have a mitigating role for wildlife as well as people.

 

The enormous numbers of gardens, and the short distances between them, mean that they could become extremely significant stepping stones, or even corridors, for mobile species adapting by dispersing towards favourable habitat.

 

Gardens already contain a very large number of non-native Western Palaearctic plant species, and some of these may become significant as food plants for continental insect species migrating with the changed climatic conditions.

 

There remains a concern however, that some species only currently surviving in gardens through winter protection,could become naturalised and viable in the countryside, and a small fraction of these could become invasive.  Given however, that the whole pattern of species and communities in Britain will be deeply impacted, it is possible that these new naturalised species may sometimes have overall positive outcomes for the biodiversity of Britain in the future.

 

See also:  Physical environment of gardens,     Native and non-native species

 

 

 

   

 

Gardeners will feel both positive and negative effects of climate change.  The RHS has updated a 2012 review as Gardening in a Changing Climate which comes up with several broad conclusions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winners and losers. The South European hummingbird hawk moth is increasingly seen in southern Britain , but the snow bunting which needs cold conditions may become extinct in this country.

 

 

 

The trends already visible will continue and become more prominent.  The best current reviews of likely effects on wildlife is the Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Impacts Report Card 2012 -13, and the updated Biodiversity Climate Change Impacts Report Card 2015. The bulleted list below is based largely on them. You can read an abridged summary of the stronger confidence predictions from the 2015 Report Card of interest to wildlife gardeners here.

 

 

 

• Garden Science
  • Introduction to Garden Science
  • Garden Ecology
    • Introduction to Garden Ecology
    • Gardens as a resource
    • Physical environment
    • Foodwebs and feeding roles
    • Climate change
    • Sheffield BUGS project
    • Plants for Bugs Project
    • Research needs
    • Garden surveys
    • Garden soils
  • Garden Biodiversity
    • Introduction to Garden Biodiversity
    • How many species in gardens?
    • Native and non-native issues
    • Gardens and conservation
  • History of gardens and wildlife
  • Finding out more
    • Introduction to Finding out more
    • Natural England booklets
    • Books and websites
    • Specialist societies
    • Scientific literature
    • Facebook groups
  • Wildlife Gardening Myths
• Wildlife
• Wild plants
• Advice - How to..
  • Introduction
  • "How to" guides
    • Introduction
    • Adapt your garden
    • Help wildlife groups
    • Work with plants
    • Make habitats
    • Garden sustainability
    • Garden with others
    • Tips for yourself
  • Garden Habitats
    • Introduction to garden habitats
    • Water habitats
      • Water and pond ecology
      • Ponds and conservation
      • Creating garden ponds
      • Planting-up ponds
      • Managing ponds
    • Hugelkultur
  • Plants and planting
    • Planting: basic principles
    • Native or non-native?
    • Planting for structure
    • Planting for pollinators
    • Planting for herbivores
    • Plants to avoid
    • Companion planting
  • Garden management
    • Introduction
    • Garden design
    • Compost and fertility
    • Managing pests and diseases
    • Gardening without peat
    • Garden products
    • Tidiness and wildlife
• Public Benefits
  • Introduction
  • Gardens and people
    • Introduction
    • Attitude Survey 2020
    • Wildlife gardens and Education 
      • Introduction
      • Education resources
      • Education evidence
      • Case studies
      • School grounds
      • Forest School
  • Urban gardens
    • Introduction
  • Garden businesses
    • Introduction 
    • Business grounds
      • Saïd School
      • Cemex factory